The ‘Change Bloc’ is dead. Israel’s opposition to Netanyahu had their chance, and blew it - analysis

After the 2022 election, the 5th cycle in just over three years, the ‘Change Bloc’ of Zionist parties disgruntled by Benjamin Netanyahu faced a reckoning; after a brief term governing with a coalition cobbled together from across the political spectrum, the Israeli public overwhelmingly rejected them in favor of the one issue, or person, around which they had united.

That government failed because they lacked cohesion. The left, the right and center were pulling from different directions, and the inclusion of the Arab party Ra’am as a voting partner exacerbated tensions with the right wing of the bloc. They were determined not to make the same mistakes this time.

The new Change Bloc ran an efficient campaign. Left-wing Meretz, which was 0.09% below the threshold in 2022, merged with Labor, who narrowly crossed the threshold, to form The Democrats. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid, which was the largest party in the opposition, joined forces with Naftali Bennett to form B’yachad, after polls showed a huge and continuous decline in support for Yesh Atid. Those two, along with Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, agreed to fight alongside each other; not to disparage and siphon votes off one another. And, barring the occasional blip of egotism, they managed this.

Working together is one thing. Removing Netanyahu from office is another thing entirely. But over the last four years, everything had seemingly fallen into place for an opposition to seize power.

Starting with the unpopular proposed judicial reforms, to the failures on October 7th and the subsequent lack of accountability, the endless wars fought by reservists while the ultra-orthodox can evade the burden of military service, the international reputational damage caused by government ministers, Netanyahu’s alleged links with Qatar and his ongoing corruption trial, and a cost of living crisis; the ground was as fertile as it ever has been, and ever could be, to unseat the government.

Yet they did not.

The results have a glass half full/half empty picture. On the one hand, the majority of Israelis voted against the Netanyahu government.

But on the other hand, the government’s bloc was larger than the Eisenkot-led Change Bloc. Netanyahu won and lost simultaneously. The Change Bloc lost. Their most plausible path to a majority would be to bring in Ra’am, which served in the previous anti-Netanyahu coalition, and the Joint List, which holds more extremist views. This would take them back to where they started.

Speaking to government voters in the days and weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote, they fall into several categories. The first is the ultra-orthodox, who vote based on who their rabbis tell them to vote for.

The second is security hawks, who feel that some aspects of the opposition are too diplomatic (or as they would say, pacifist) for a country constantly under attack, especially regarding the West Bank, which many fear will be the next major war arena without intervention and deterrence. The third category is ‘Bibists’, immovable supporters of Netanyahu who approve of his pragmatism, experience, and his security successes in the form of targeted assassinations.

Where can the Change Bloc get votes from? The Haredim and the Bibists are highly unlikely to ever vote for the opposition. The right-wing hawks were supposed to be enticed by the policies of Liberman, Bennett and former IDF Chief of Staff Eisenkot. But not enough people made that jump.

Israel’s demographics are changing too. The religious, right-leaning population is growing exponentially, while secular liberals leave the country. Furthermore, most other democratic countries have a youth population that is overwhelmingly left-wing. In Israel, it is the opposite. Polls before the election indicated that the far-right Otzma Yehudit was among the most popular for first time voters. This is why many opposition supporters viewed this election as a sliding doors moment. And the door is closing.

Policy-wise there is a lot of overlap between the likes of Yashar, B’yachad and Netanyahu’s Likud. They are Zionist, security-focused, free market parties and, without Likud having to rely on extremist and ultra-orthodox parties, could see eye-to-eye more on issues pertaining to social liberalism and Haredi enlistment to the IDF.

And crucially, those three parties could form a strong government. But it will not happen as long as Netanyahu is at the helm. He has alienated too many voters and politicians from the Change Bloc for any stable government alongside them to work. It would also be political suicide for those politicians who join forces with him - just ask Benny Gantz.

If there are more elections, they will need to expand their reach in order to form a government. Whether this is with the Arabs or from the Netanyahu coalition, they will have to decide. But until then, or until Netanyahu leaves party politics, the Change Bloc is dead. May its memory be a blessing.