Israeli AI tool tracks likelihood of US strike on Iran

As tensions escalate in the Middle East, an Israeli tech project is giving civilians a window into what was once the exclusive domain of intelligence agencies: predicting military action in real time.

StrikeRadar, built by Israeli product manager Yonatan Back, uses artificial intelligence to analyze flight data, aircraft movements, and breaking news reports to estimate the probability of a U.S. strike on Iran. 

The platform translates these inputs into a live probability score, providing users with an at-a-glance view of the region’s tactical risk.

Back, who has no formal coding background, said he developed the system in just six hours with the help of an AI language model. 

The tool identifies patterns from historical U.S. operations in Iran and weighs current signals, such as unusual refueling flights or sudden cancellations, against those benchmarks to flag potential warning signs.

Unlike prediction markets, which rely on crowd sentiment, or closed institutional platforms that cater to professional investors, StrikeRadar is designed for public use. “This is about giving people access to strategic analysis that used to be reserved for governments and large organizations,” Back said.

Experts say tools like StrikeRadar reflect a broader shift in how the public consumes intelligence. As news cycles accelerate and conflicts evolve rapidly, accessible AI can supplement traditional reporting and analysis, but Back stresses the limits of technology. “AI can give probabilities, but the decisions are still made by humans,” he said.

StrikeRadar may mark the start of a new era where citizens can monitor global flashpoints in real time. In a region where a single decision can change the course of history, Back’s creation offers insight, and perhaps a measure of reassurance, at the click of a dashboard.