Iran's message to the Kurds, delivered by drone - analysis

The Iranian drone attack on the Kurdistan Regional Government's Prime Minister's office in northern Iraq on Monday should be a surprise to no one.

In a statement, KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani condemned "this illegitimate and unacceptable attack" on his office, and called it "a dangerous step and a direct threat to the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region."

But this is far from the first attack by Iran and its proxies on Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region. In fact, since the US and Iran agreed on a ceasefire back in April, Iranian-backed militia drone and missile attacks on Kurdish targets have continued regularly, more than any other territory in the region.

Most of these attacks were aimed at Iranian Kurdish opposition forces based in Iraqi Kurdistan, but several attacks have also targeted the KRG and its facilities, including energy sites. What has changed now is that the KRG political leadership is being targeted too.

This significant escalation comes just a day after Axios reported that Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government President Nechirvan Barzani, Masrour's brother, served as a backchannel for exchanging messages between the White House and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. While the IRGC denied the existence of a backchannel with Washington, US President Trump confirmed there was a backchannel with the IRGC, without stating the identity of the intermediary.

By the way, Nechirvan Barzani's own home in Duhok was attacked by a drone during the 40-day war. At the time, the Iranian Army condemned the drone attack and alleged that Israel carried out the attack with US approval.

If there is a backchannel, and indeed it's being facilitated by the Kurds, why would Iran attack them directly? Just like the rest of Iran's neighbors in the region, Erbil is also learning the hard way that appeasement will never change Tehran's behavior; it will only embolden it. While the Kurds are mediating secretly, the IRGC views a direct military attack as the best form of denial.

But today's drone attack on Barzani's office in Erbil carries with it another message. It's a warning to Erbil against continuing to support Iranian Kurdish militias who have sought refuge in the Kurdistan mountains for the past few decades.

While the KRG denies supporting the Iranian Kurds, who are considered to be the main ground military threat to the longevity of the Islamic Republic, their mere presence in Kurdistan is seen as an affront to Tehran. Add to that a flurry of reports over a botched Israeli plan to deploy Iranian Kurds as a ground force to topple the regime in Tehran, the IRGC is trying to make it clear to the Iraqi Kurds: undermine us at your own risk.

Tehran also isn't pleased with Israel's alleged deep foothold in the Kurdistan region, which Jerusalem uses as a platform for intelligence gathering and launching military operations against Iran.

Once again, the Kurds can evoke their years-old proverb: "We have no friends but the mountains." While the Kurds regularly find themselves at the forefront of military conflicts against regional threats, history has proven to them that they will always be betrayed and abandoned by those who have sought after their bravery and sacrifice.