Did the Board of Peace just blow its chances to end the war in Gaza? - Analysis

Nickolay Mladenov is a serious person. He is a seasoned diplomat, the former Defense Minister of Bulgaria and gained much respect in the region following his role as UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process.

As the Board of Peace's High Representative for Gaza, there is no question as to his genuine efforts to seek a just resolution for Gaza which also ensures Israel's security needs. But Mladenov's recent statements over the Board of Peace's roadmap for Gaza, whether deliberate or not, have made his already near-impossible job a lot harder.

According to the 15-point proposal announced by the BoP on Friday, the process of decommissioning Hamas' weapons "shall be linked to an Israeli withdrawal, in phases, from the areas under its control in Gaza."

While there is no detailing of the sequencing of both issues, this vague wording was likely intended to lure Hamas into agreeing to the roadmap, which it ostensibly did.

But Mladenov went a step further. Shortly after the roadmap was published, Mladenov wrote in a post on X that "Withdrawal must move in lockstep with decommissioning." This statement removes any ambiguity regarding the sequencing. Mladenov stated very clearly, both processes of Hamas' disarmament and Israel's withdrawal will happen in tandem, meaning, at the same time.

This likely explains why it took Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu an uncharacteristic five days to issue a first official statement regarding the BoP's roadmap, when on Wednesday he said that Israeli forces will not withdraw one inch from their current positions until Hamas is fully and verifiably disarmed.

What took Netanyahu so long to issue a response? While the text of the roadmap is vague, Mladenov's clarification on Friday gave the process an unfavorable interpretation of the text, at least politically, for Netanyahu.

So what changed between Friday and Wednesday? On Monday, Mladenov met with Netanyahu in Jerusalem, in a meeting that saw no Israeli press release or photo-op between the two gentlemen. And yet, shortly after the meeting, the BoP said: "Contrary to inaccurate reports, we note that the withdrawal of the IDF beyond the Yellow Line will take place only once decommissioning is complete, as Hamas committed to the mediators. This applies to light weapons, heavy weapons, and the tunnels alike."

This is clearly not "in lockstep," but first disarmament, and only then, withdrawal. This appears to be a 180 degree shift from Friday. And Hamas noticed. According to reports, Hamas sent Mladenov angry messages accusing him of shifting his position "to please the Israeli government," and give "a dangerous impression” regarding how the agreement will be implemented. Mladenov reportedly rejected Hamas' accusations and told them that there were no changes to the 15-point roadmap agreement reached in Cairo.

However, now that the BoP's position ostensibly aligns more with Israel's, Jerusalem will find it difficult to refuse. But now Hamas is angry, and Mladenov will have his work cut out for him to bring them back into agreement before the roadmap can begin implementation.

And so, whether Mladenov mistakenly publicized his delicate maneuvering as mediator or did it deliberately to bring each side into agreement in turn, this latest fiasco is but a glimpse to the near-impossible balancing act he has to preform, in his Odysseus-like journey to bring an end to the war in Gaza.