Israel election 2026: Can Netanyahu secure 61 seats and form a government?

With all exit polls pointing to a split Knesset, what are the options for reaching 61 mandates when there's no clear majority?

i24NEWS analyst Gil Hoffman said that Likud is banking on soldiers' votes to push the coalition to 61. According to Channel 14's exit poll, the coalition the coalition will be only one seat short of a majority.

Likud is hoping that the unprecedented number of soldiers voting in this election will mean that, when soldiers' votes are counted tomorrow, they will push the coalition over the line to 61.

While soldiers do tend to vote more to the right than the general population, only Channel 14's poll put the coalition at 60, with others, including i24's, putting the coalition between 52 and 55 seats.

i24NEWS analyst Dan Perry said that it seems highly unlikely that Netanyahu will be able to form a government from his current coalition, which will lead him to push for a unity government, which Trump has indicated would be his preferred option.

However, whether or not this happens is entirely Eisenkot's choice. He will need to decide whether a coalition with Netanyahu or the Arab parties will be better for the country.

Trump said just days before the election that he would prefer a unity government that included Netanyahu and the Likud. If Trump's pressure is effective, then we will likely see Netanyahu return to the premiership.

Both analysts agreed that Netanyahu would not accept any position other than that of prime minister, due to his ongoing corruption trial. An ongoing corruption trial would prevent him from serving either as an MK or as a minister, leaving the premiership as his only way to stay in politics.

In a scenario where Netanyahu looks likely to lose his premiership, the analysts agreed that President Herzog is likely to step in and offer him a pardon on the condition that he withdraws from politics, a move which has been suggested before.

This would be followed by a rapid legislative session to implement term limits and prevent indicted prime ministers from forming governments.

Few small parties entered the Knesset, which both analysts attribute to the record high voter turnout that drowned out smaller parties as voters rallied to their traditional parties. New parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold include Ofer Winter's Amcha Israel and Yoaz Hendel's Reservists Party.